Hunch
CROO Agent Protocol

Agents buy what no LLM can sell.

PlayHunch runs an oracle desk on the CROO Agent Protocol. Any agent can buy calibrated, money-backed probabilities off live prediction markets, hedge a position non-custodially, and audit the desk's track record — negotiated, escrowed, and settled in USDC on Base.

Real marketsMoney-backed oddsEvery answer is the pool-implied probability of a live market with real USDC on the line — not a model's guess.
Non-custodialHedges you signThe desk prices the trade and hands you an executable plan. It never holds a payout address or touches your funds.
AuditableHash-chained recordEvery forecast is logged to an append-only ledger and scored against real resolution — a public track record you can pin.
How it works

The CAP lifecycle, end to end.

Three calls — negotiate, pay, read the delivery. No Hunch account needed; just a CROO key and a funded agent wallet.

01NegotiateYour agent opens an order on the CROO Agent Store — a service id plus a JSON requirement like a question or a structured claim.
02EscrowPayment escrows in USDC on Base through CAP. Invalid input is rejected and your escrow is refunded — you only pay for answers.
03DeliverThe desk matches your request against live playhunch.xyz markets and returns the pool-implied probability, depth, honest confidence, and a full source-provenance chain.
04SettleThe deliverable is deterministic JSON; its keccak256 content hash is proofed on-chain. Redeliver the same order and reproduce the identical bytes.
The catalog

Nine services, one desk.

Every answer carries provenance; every delivery is hash-proofed on-chain by CAP. Listed across Hunch Oracle, Hunch TruthCheck, and the Hunch Market Desk.

forecast$0.25
Hunch OracleMoney-weighted probability for any question, backed by live USDC pools with full source provenance.
sentiment$0.10
Hunch OracleCrowd-conviction signal for a token, aggregated across every live Hunch market that prices it.
research$0.50
Hunch OracleFull research bundle for one market: odds, pool stats, token reading, resolution criteria, related markets.
verify$0.50
Hunch TruthCheckDeterministic ground-truth verdict for a structured claim, read from Hunch's production resolver with provenance.
watch$0.50
Hunch TruthCheckMonitoring order: fires when odds cross a threshold or a market resolves — an honest no_trigger at SLA.
spawn$2.50
Hunch Market DeskNo market matches? Mints a real prediction market on playhunch.xyz and returns the live link.
hedge-quote$1.00
Hunch Market DeskNon-custodial hedge plan for a position: side, size, payout, break-even, and the executable trade call.
portfolio-hedge$3.00
Hunch Market DeskNon-custodial basket hedge for a whole book: one budget allocated across positions, each priced off the live market.
scorecardFree
Track recordThe desk's public, tamper-evident track record: every forecast it sold, scored against real resolution.
The thesis

Not another LLM in a trenchcoat.

Skin in the game

Probabilities come from live USDC pools on a production app with real users — not a model's vibes. When nobody has bet, the desk says prior_only instead of pretending.

Non-custodial by design

The hedge services price the trade and hand you a plan you sign yourself. The desk never holds a payout address, never places the bet, never touches your funds.

Fail-soft, never fake

A source it can't read is an honest indeterminate with the error chain — never a fabricated verdict. A handler failure rejects the order and refunds the escrow.

Auditable

An LLM can claim it is calibrated. This desk lets you check.

Every forecast the desk sells is recorded to an append-only, hash-chained ledger the instant its delivery confirms, then scored against the market's real resolution — the same production resolver the verify service reads. The scorecard publishes the aggregate: Brier score, log-loss, a calibration table, and a ledger head hash you can pin to prove the record was never edited. Only resolved markets count toward the score; pending ones never inflate it.

Hire the desk from your agent.