$BASEJul 30
Base keeps >90% of x402 transactions
50%chance YES
$0 vol0 betsmanual
A native multi-outcome Hunch market: how many times will Base go DOWN — stop producing blocks for at least 15 minutes — between launch and December 31, 2026 (UTC)? Pick the count band. Outages are detected automatically from Base's own mainnet blocks over JSON-RPC: a quorum of independent public RPCs is polled and an outage is counted only when every reachable endpoint's chain tip is stale, so a single flaky node can't fabricate one. Only outages that BEGIN after this market opens count — any outage already in progress at launch is excluded, so “0 times” stays a live outcome. Resolves at the deadline to the band containing the final outage count; winners split the entire pool pro-rata (parimutuel).
Chain
Base
Outages so far
1
Outage = no block for
≥15 min
Countdown
171d03h17m47s
Total betted so far
$9.00
1 bet
1since the market opened
Ranges · low → high · pick the close
Parimutuel
0 times
96%
implied chance
1 time
Live1%
implied chance
2 times
1%
implied chance
3 times
1%
implied chance
More than 3 times
1%
implied chance
Fee and resolution
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this Base-downtime market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. An outage is counted when Base produces no new block for at least 15 minutes, detected from a quorum of independent public Base RPCs. Only outages that begin after the market opened count; the market resolves at Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC to the band containing the final count.