$STOCKSOct 23
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Kalshi and Coinbase filed with the SEC and CFTC on Sep 18–19 to list perpetual futures on US stocks; the earliest effective date is Nov 2. YES if either starts trading them for US users by Dec 31.
Outcome
YES / NO
Resolves
By hand · named source
Deadline
Dec 31, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC
Countdown
76d11h27m47s
Total betted so far
$0.00
0 bets
YES
$0.00
NO
$0.00
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How this resolves
Resolves YES if, between listing and Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, Coinbase (Coinbase Derivatives or Coinbase Financial Markets) or Kalshi launches trading in a perpetual futures contract on any single US-listed stock that US customers can trade, as confirmed by an official company or exchange announcement and a first executed trade. Index perps, non-US-only offerings and approvals without trading do not count. Otherwise NO. Betting closes Dec 31, 4:00 PM ET. These rules are fixed at listing and are never clarified or edited afterwards; Hunch settles by hand from the named source and publishes the figure it used.
Fee and settlement
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this single-stock perps market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. This market has no live price feed — it is settled manually once the outcome is clear from coinbase / kalshi announcements + cftc / sec filings, by Dec 31, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC at the latest.
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