Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, beating its own compiled consensus by 5%. YES if its Q4 2026 production-and-deliveries release (about Jan 2, 2027) reports more.
Outcome
YES / NO
Resolves
By the deliveries release
Deadline
Nov 30, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC
Countdown
45d11h26m53s
Total betted so far
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NO
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How this resolves
Resolves YES if total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026 in Tesla's quarterly production, deliveries and deployments press release are strictly greater than 486,532 (the Q3 2026 figure in Tesla's Oct 2, 2026 release). Later revisions are ignored. If the release is not published by January 31, 2027, the market is VOID and refunded. Betting closes Mon, Nov 30, 4:00 PM ET. These rules are fixed at listing and are never clarified or edited afterwards; Hunch settles by hand from the named source and publishes the figure it used.
Fee and settlement
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this TSLA deliveries market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. This market has no live price feed — it is settled manually once the outcome is clear from tesla quarterly deliveries release (ir.tesla.com), by Nov 30, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC at the latest.