Will MSFT move 4% or more after fiscal Q1 earnings

Key instants

Reference price

Wed, Oct 28 close (4:00 PM ET)Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 20:00 UTC

Settlement price

Thu, Oct 29, 10:00 AM ETThu, Oct 29, 2026, 14:00 UTC

Betting closes

Wed, Oct 28, 4:00 PM ETWed, Oct 28, 2026, 20:00 UTC

Rules — fixed at listing

Resolves YES if the price of MSFT on the Chainlink "Coinbase MSFT" feed on Base (proxy 0xeb10a6c9aa7e537aed766c08c35dae35b321b18c) at Thu, Oct 29, 10:00 AM ET (2026-10-29T14:00:00.000Z) is at least 4% above or at least 4% below the price at Wed, Oct 28 close (4:00 PM ET) (2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z); otherwise NO (exactly 4% counts as YES). "The price at" an instant means the feed round in force then — the latest round whose updatedAt is at or before that instant — read with getRoundData() and published with the result so anyone can check it. Coinbase's feed publishes a new round when the price moves about 0.5% or every 24 hours, so the price in force can differ slightly from the exchange's printed close; the feed value is the one that counts. If a price needed to settle was never published, or the round in force is more than 96 hours old (a halted or paused feed), the market is VOID and every stake is refunded in full with no fee. The window is fixed at listing: if Microsoft reports on a different date, so the results are not released between those two instants, the market is VOID and refunded. Betting closes at Wed, Oct 28 close (4:00 PM ET). If a stock split or reverse split takes effect inside the window, the earlier price is divided by the split ratio before comparing.

Fee and settlement

Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this MSFT earnings-night market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. A VOID refunds every stake in full, fee included.