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A native Hunch YES/NO market: will the total DeFi TVL on Arbitrum reach $2B at any point before July 31, 2026 (UTC)? TVL is ~$1.25B today, read live from DefiLlama's canonical per-chain figure. YES locks the instant a confirmed reading touches $2B; otherwise NO at the deadline. Stakes escrow onchain in the Hunch vault on Arbitrum One; winners split the pool pro-rata (parimutuel).
Outcome
YES / NO
Target
$2B
Deadline
Jul 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Countdown
18d08h04m47s
Total betted so far
$1.00
1 bet
YES
$1.00100%
NO
0%$0.00
Live Arbitrum DeFi TVL · DefiLlama
Current TVL
$1.24B
Target
$2B
How this resolves
Resolves YES the instant Arbitrum's DeFi TVL reaches $2B at any settlement tick on or before Jul 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC — an early-lockable milestone with a 30-minute confirmation guard (two readings must clear the line). Otherwise NO at the deadline. TVL is DefiLlama's canonical per-chain figure, read from the free, keyless chains API. Stakes escrow in the Hunch settlement vault on Arbitrum One; the resolution is mirrored onchain and winners are paid by the contract.
Fee and settlement
Fees fund Hunch markets. The 2% entry fee from this Arbitrum TVL market goes to the Hunch market treasury. Winners split the entire market pool pro-rata by stake (parimutuel), so payouts never exceed the pool. At creation (Jun 10, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC) Arbitrum carried ≈ $1.25B in DeFi TVL — roughly 1.6× below the $2B line.
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